Real Estate Investment in Aroeira: Why 2026 Could Be the Right Year to Invest Near Lisbon
If you're considering investing in property near Lisbon, there's one area that's been on the radar of savvy investors — and you may not have heard of it yet. It's called Herdade da Aroeira, it's 20 minutes from the city center, and it's experiencing one of the most consistent appreciation rates on Lisbon's South Bank.
I'm Miguel Gomes, I live in Aroeira and work here as a real estate consultant. Over the past few years, I've closely watched this area's transformation — and the forecasts for 2026 are genuinely exciting. Let me explain why.
The Context: Why 2026 Will Be a Good Year for Real Estate Investment in Portugal
Before diving into Aroeira specifically, it's worth understanding what's happening in the Portuguese real-estate market.
The European Commission is forecasting 5.1% growth in construction investment in Portugal for 2026. Interest rates are coming down — the ECB points to 2% on deposit rates by the end of 2025. And Lisbon ranked as the 10th most attractive city for real estate investment in Europe, according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate report.
Translation: money is more accessible, the market is heating up, and international investors continue to view Portugal as a safe destination.
But here's the problem: Lisbon is expensive. Very expensive.
Average prices in the city center hover around €4,425 per square meter. Cascais? €4,201/sqm. For many investors, the numbers no longer add up like they used to.
This is where the South Bank — and Aroeira in particular — enters the equation.
Aroeira: The Best-Kept Secret of Lisbon's South Bank
Herdade da Aroeira isn't new. It's been around for decades, with two golf courses designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and Ronald Fream, 350 hectares of protected pine forest, and beaches 5 minutes away. But in recent years, something changed.
Demand skyrocketed.
Families working in Lisbon and Almada discovered they could live here with superior quality of life, 20 minutes from the office. International investors started noticing the prices — 20 to 30% lower than Cascais for equivalent properties. And the rental market, both long-term and tourist, has been consistently strong.
Here are the numbers that matter:
Average prices in Aroeira (2025):
2-bedroom apartments: €250,000 - €450,000 (€3,000-€4,500/sqm)
3-bedroom apartments: €350,000 - €650,000 (€3,200-€4,800/sqm)
Villas: €650,000 - €3,000,000
Compare with Cascais: you're saving between €800 to €1,200 per square meter. On a 120sqm 3-bedroom, that's €96,000 to €144,000 in difference.
And appreciation? Well-positioned properties in Aroeira have been registering annual growth of 6-8%, above the national average of 4.5%.
Three Reasons Why Aroeira Is Different from Other Investments Near Lisbon
1. Structural Scarcity (And That's Good for You)
There's almost no more land to build on. The estate is virtually exhausted in terms of available land for new projects. This means supply is controlled — and when demand grows (and it is growing), prices rise.
In 2024, Portugal licensed only 28,000 new homes. Insufficient for demand. In Aroeira, where virtually nothing new is being built, this pressure is even greater.
2. Two Markets in One: Rental Income and Capital Appreciation
Aroeira offers something rare: strong income AND capital appreciation.
Long-term rental: A 3-bedroom in Aroeira easily rents for €1,800-€2,500/month. Demand comes from expat families, professionals working in Lisbon, and people who value quality of life. These are stable tenants, with 2-5 year contracts.
Tourist rental: Golfers, families on vacation, groups seeking beach and nature. A 3-bedroom can generate €1,500-€3,000/week during peak season. Gross yield can reach 7-10% per year if well managed.
And at the same time, the property appreciates. In the last three years, I know 3-bedroom apartments that went from €380,000 to €480,000. That's 26% appreciation — while generating €1,800/month in rent.
3. It's 20 Minutes from Lisbon (And That Changes Everything)
Comporta is beautiful, but it's 1h15 from Lisbon. Cascais is practical, but it's overcrowded and expensive. Aroeira has the perfect balance: nature, golf, beach, security — and it's 20 minutes from the capital.
For investors, this translates to:
Larger pool of potential tenants (people working in Lisbon)
Accessibility to show the property
Ease of management
Greater liquidity if you want to sell
What to Buy in Aroeira? Quick Guide by Property Type
If you're looking for income + accessible entry: 2-Bedroom Apartment
Investment: €250k-€450k | Expected rent: €1,400-€1,900/month | Yield: 4-6%
2-bedrooms are the entry point. Perfect for renting to couples or for Airbnb. Low maintenance, controlled condo fees (€80-€150/month), and good liquidity if you need to sell.
If you want the best of both worlds: 3-Bedroom Apartment
Investment: €350k-€650k | Expected rent: €1,800-€2,500/month | Yield: 4.5-7%
This is the sweet spot. 3-bedrooms are the most sought-after typology, for both sale and rental. Families want space, golf groups prefer comfort, expats need rooms for children. And appreciation has been above average.
If it has golf or pine forest views, add 10-15% to the value. Large terraces? Add 8-12%. Condo with pool? Add 10-15%.
If you're thinking big: Villas
Investment: €650k-€3M | Expected rent: €3,000-€8,000/month | Yield: 3.5-5% (long-term) | 6-9% (tourist)
Villas are the top of the pyramid. Less liquid, but with very strong appreciation (12-18% expected through 2026). The international market loves villas in Aroeira — European retirees, families with children, investors seeking exclusivity.
A villa with a pool next to the golf course? Prepare to pay (and receive) a premium.
2026 Forecasts: What to Expect
I'll be direct: I don't have a crystal ball. But I have data, I live on the ground, and I talk every week with buyers and investors. Here's what I see:
Expected appreciation in 2026:
2 and 3-bedrooms: +10-15%
Villas: +12-18%
National average: +3.6%
Why this difference? Three factors:
Interest rates dropping → more buyers can get financing
Supply deficit → more demand than available homes
International discovery → foreign investors are "discovering" Aroeira (before they only knew Cascais and Comporta)
Those who buy now, at the end of 2025, position themselves to capture that appreciation in 2026.
Three Mistakes I See Investors Make in Aroeira
Mistake #1: Not considering hidden costs
Buying for €450,000 is just the beginning. Add:
Condo fees: €80-€200/month (€960-€2,400/year)
IMI (property tax): ~0.4% of value (€1,800/year)
Insurance: €300-€600/year
Maintenance: 1-2% of value/year
A €450k 3-bedroom has annual costs of €4,000-€6,000. If you rent for €2,000/month (€24,000/year), the net is €18,000-€20,000. Still excellent, but you need to count everything.
Mistake #2: Assuming Airbnb is always better
Yes, it can yield more. But it also:
Requires active management (or pay 15-20% to a company)
Has seasonal vacancy (winter may be weak)
Wears the property faster
Requires Local Accommodation registration
Long-term rental gives less money, but it's true passive income. Choose according to your profile.
Mistake #3: Buying without knowing the micro-market
Not all 3-bedrooms in Aroeira are equal. There are better-managed condos, areas with better sun exposure, more valued streets. A 3-bedroom in Aroeira I might cost €400k. The same in Aroeira Golf, with views, costs €550k — but appreciates faster.
This is where a local consultant makes a difference. I know every condo, every street, every detail that impacts value.
Real Case: How a 3-Bedroom Generated 38% Return in 3 Years
Let me share a concrete example from a friend who invested in 2022:
Purchase:
3-bedroom in Aroeira, 120sqm, pine forest view
Price: €380,000
Minor improvements: €8,000
Furniture: €12,000
Total: €400,000
Rental (2022-2025):
Rent: €1,800/month
Gross income 3 years: €64,800
Costs (condo, IMI, etc): €12,600
Net income: €52,200
Appreciation:
Current value: €480,000
Capital gain: €80,000
Total ROI: €132,200 (33% in 3 years)
This is the power of Aroeira: stable cash flow + capital appreciation.
How to Start: Practical Next Steps
If this makes sense to you, here's what I recommend:
1. Define the objective
Are you looking for income or appreciation? Long-term or medium-term? Do you want to actively manage or passive income? The answer will define whether you buy a 2-bedroom, 3-bedroom, or villa.
2. Do the financing math
With Euribor dropping, financing has become more accessible. For a €450k 3-bedroom:
20% down payment: €90,000
Financing: €360,000 at 3.5% over 30 years
Payment: ~€1,615/month
If you rent for €2,000/month, the investment partially self-finances.
3. Get to know the area
Come visit. Feel the atmosphere, see the condos, understand the lifestyle. Aroeira isn't for everyone — it's quieter than Cascais, more exclusive than Almada. You have to like it.
4. Work with someone local
I can show you properties, explain nuances of each area, give access to off-market opportunities, and guide you through the entire process. Since I live here, I know details that external consultants don't know.
The Window of Opportunity Is Open (But It Won't Stay Open Forever)
There's a phrase I use a lot with my clients: "The best time to invest in Aroeira was 5 years ago. The second best time is now."
With forecasts for 2026, interest rates dropping, and Aroeira still 20-30% cheaper than Cascais for equivalent quality, the window is open. But as more investors discover this area — and believe me, they are discovering it — that window narrows.
I'm not saying to buy tomorrow without thinking. I'm saying to pay attention, do the math, and evaluate if it makes sense for you.
If it makes sense, let's talk. I live here, I work here, I know the market better than anyone. And I can help you find the right investment.
Want to know more about real estate investment in Aroeira? Get in touch with me. Whether for an informal chat about the market, an assessment of available properties, or to visit the area — I'm here to help.
Frequently Asked Questions About Real Estate Investment in Aroeira
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Yes, real estate investment in Aroeira shows excellent prospects for 2026. With interest rates dropping, structural supply scarcity, and prices still 20-30% lower than Cascais, the area offers a rare combination of income (4-7% yield) and capital appreciation (forecast of 10-15% for 2026). Proximity to Lisbon (20 minutes) and growing international interest make the investment particularly attractive.
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Real estate investment in Aroeira varies by property type: 2-bedroom apartments cost between €250,000-€450,000, 3-bedrooms between €350,000-€650,000, and villas from €650,000 up to €3,000,000. For investors, the sweet spot is 3-bedrooms, with the best balance between initial investment, rental demand, and appreciation potential.
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The return on real estate investment in Aroeira depends on strategy: long-term rental offers gross yields of 4-6% annually with stable income, while tourist rental can reach 7-10% but requires more active management. Additionally, property appreciation has been 6-8% per year, above the national average of 4.5%.
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For real estate investment near Lisbon, Aroeira offers better price/potential ratio than Cascais. While Cascais is at €4,200/sqm, Aroeira ranges €3,500-€4,500/sqm for equivalent quality, representing 20-30% savings. Aroeira has greater appreciation potential as it's still being discovered by international investors, while maintaining comparable exclusivity and quality of life.
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Yes, it's possible to finance real estate investment in Aroeira with a mortgage. Portuguese banks offer up to 80% financing (LTV) for investment, with variable rates (Euribor + spread 0.7%-1.5%) or fixed rates (3-4%). With interest rates dropping in 2026, timing is favorable. For a €450,000 3-bedroom with 20% down, monthly payment is around €1,615, easily supported by €2,000/month rent.
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For real estate investment in Aroeira, the most valued areas are: Aroeira Golf (golf course views, 15-25% premium), Aroeira II (newer construction, good appreciation), and Aroeira Praia (beach proximity). Aroeira I offers more accessible prices being excellent for rental income. The choice depends on objective: immediate income vs maximum capital appreciation.
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Yes, foreign investors can freely purchase property in Aroeira for investment. There are no restrictions for EU citizens. For non-EU citizens, the process is equally simple, only requiring a NIF (Portuguese tax identification number). Many international investors choose Aroeira for the combination of Portuguese legal security, proximity to Lisbon, and golf & beach lifestyle.
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The rental market in Aroeira is very strong, with constant demand from expat families, professionals working in Lisbon, and tourists. Long-term rental guarantees rents of €1,400-€2,500/month (2-3 bedrooms) with stable contracts. Tourist rental can generate €1,500-€3,000/week during peak season. Occupancy rates in both segments are high, making real estate investment in Aroeira particularly profitable.
Miguel Gomes
Real Estate Consultant at RE/MAX Almada| Resident at Herdade da Aroeira
Specialist in Real Estate Investment in Aroeira and Lisbon's South Bank
Investing in property near Lisbon has never been so accessible. Discover why Aroeira is the choice of smart investors in 2026.